Forecasting Social Processes


Between 2015-2019 I was hired at EASO (the EU Asylum Agency) to launch and coordinate a research programme aimed (among other things) at forecasting asylum-related migration in Europe. This is a big scientific challenge, but one that can improve the functioning of asylum systems. I have been working on this project with some colleagues within and outside of EASO – among these, Jakub Bijak and his team and (particularly) Stefano Iacus. Eventually we developed an approach (and tool) based on machine learning and adaptive models. An article presenting this approach was recently published on Nature Scientific Reports.

Stefano and I are now exploring the potential of our methodology to also forecast other social processes, and namely international conflicts and their fatalities. We partnered with Fulvio Attinà and took part to an international forecasting competition coordinated by Havard Hegre. Our related paper is currently under review.

Still as part of my interest in forecasting, I am a member of the advisory board of QuantMig.

More project details will follow.

Marcello Carammia
Marcello Carammia
Senior Researcher in Political Science

My research focuses on the comparative analysis of institutions and public policies, with special interest in the interaction between migration dynamics, politics, and policy.